Weekly Crop Commentary - 01/30/2026

Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing

Good afternoon! Hope you’re all staying safe and warm this week. Grain and outside markets have retreated quite a bit today as we head toward month end, but there have been a few notable headlines over the last 24 hours. Overnight, lawmakers reached a deal to avoid a partial government shutdown, followed by news this morning that President Trump announced Kevin Walsh as his pick for Fed Chair beginning in May, with expectations he may lean toward lower interest rates, something markets will watch closely as inflation data unfolds. Crude oil pushed to six-month highs earlier this week before backing off amidst a firmer U.S. dollar. On the geopolitical front, reports indicate Iran, China, and Russia plan to conduct joint naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman. Domestically, the river system continues to face challenges from extreme cold, with traffic largely shut down from St. Louis north and portions of the Ohio River also impacted. 

On the grain side of things, soybeans remain under pressure as the U.S. is not competitive on the world stage and China has returned to sourcing Brazilian beans after meeting its 12 MMT commitment, while wheat saw a brief weather-driven rally amid bitter cold, with estimates suggesting 15–20% of the U.S. winter wheat crop may be at risk of damage. We’ll see next week whether spring comes early or if it's another 6 weeks of winter… Have a great weekend!

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

Hopefully, everyone has shoveled themselves out of the snow by now! It’ll be beneficial moisture to the ground once it melts. But it’s going to slowly start to feel warmer next week (20 degrees! Heatwave!), so we have that to look forward to.

This week, the dollar lost some value, and that low was sustained for most of the week, boosting commodities. The low dollar makes U.S. commodities cheaper, increasing demand and purchases.

I hope we will see confirmation of the Chinese agreement to buy US soybeans for the next 3 years. If we see that confirmed, it will greatly increase our demand for beans here. We are also keeping an eye on the weather in Argentina. They are starting to note some dryness concerns, which could lower their crop quality and yields.

Zach Dennis
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

Happy Friday! I hope everyone has stayed warm!

The U.S. corn market continues to grind under the weight of ample supply and muted demand growth, keeping prices defensive as we move deeper into the 2025/26 marketing year. Record or near-record production has built a comfortable balance sheet, and while demand remains steady, it has not expanded fast enough to absorb the size of the crop. On the demand side, feed use remains firm, being supported by strong livestock numbers. Ethanol demand has been mixed. At the federal level, they are trying to get E-15 approved for year-round production, which would help the demand side. Looking ahead, Argentina’s weather patterns have been dry lately and are expected to remain so for the next 7 days. Time will tell if this will hinder the corn crop.

The soybean market is still stuck between strong production numbers and uncertain demand. China has purchased all 12 MMT of soybeans that were promised. With Brazilian soybeans currently cheaper than US beans, China has gone back to buying Brazilian beans. On the bright side, crush remains strong and continues to grow.

Hope everyone has a great weekend!

Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)

March corn started the week higher and posted solid gains on Wednesday and Thursday, getting close to testing pre-report levels. However, it ran into stiff resistance around the $4.34–$4.35 futures area and has backed off today. If you’ve got bin corn you’re planning to price in the next month or two, it may be a good idea to get some targets working near this key resistance level. It’s hard for me to come up with a compelling story as to why corn should break through that price area. While the basis could continue to improve, futures will likely struggle to move higher barring additional bullish news.

Soybeans showed impressive strength earlier in the week before running out of steam today. Slower progress in South America appeared to be one of the contributors to the short-term rally. As early winter chugs along, it’s a good time to start looking at downside protection for unpriced harvest and early 2027 grain.

Something Steve and I discussed earlier, based on recent commentary, is that China’s population fell by 3.39 million in 2025, roughly equivalent to Iowa's population. The gap between the birth and death rates continues to widen, and no clear remedy has been found. Thirty-six years of the one-child policy have forced families to focus on maximizing the success of a single child. Looking ahead, more than half of China’s population is expected to be of retirement age within the next 25 years, creating an economic imbalance as a shrinking workforce is tasked with supporting a growing retired population. Tying this back to grain markets, that outlook isn’t supportive for U.S. soybean exports. As China becomes more dependent on South America and overall consumption continues to shrink, the U.S. continues to lose global market share to cheaper South American beans.

This isn’t meant to be doom and gloom, just an effort to highlight some longer-term considerations for future crops.

Have a great weekend!

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Happy Friday! We’ve made it through January, and it’s less than 50 days until Spring! In the first half of the week, we saw corn and soybeans continue their slow ascent from lows set after the Jan USDA report. Although nothing has fundamentally changed in the S&D table, the weaker dollar has aided commodities. Commodities like metals and ags benefit from both speculators, and US grain becomes more valuable in the global marketplace. Since last Thursday, the US Dollar has been falling, and this week it plummeted to a four-year low. Gold and silver have been climbing since the beginning of the year, really taking off earlier this week. However, as we close out the week, metals are retreating from their gains, and the USD is recovering from its lows.

We saw farmers selling on the soybean side this week as cash beans at Marysville hit 10.70 for DP and January delivery bushels. We also had some take advantage of the June delivery contract price of $11. For the new crop, customers have locked in 10.50+ cash for fall delivery, and in yesterday’s trading session, they reached a high of 10.63 at Marysville. While we’re now 20¢ off these recent highs, if these pricing levels interest you, let us know, and we can put in offers to potentially capture short-lived rallies. Have a great weekend and stay warm!

Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)

It’s been a bitterly cold week, but welcome to winter in Ohio. Freezing temperatures across much of the Midwest have raised some concerns about winter wheat damage. At this point, it’s still too early to know the extent of any issues, as it will likely take another month before the fields fully tell the story. In areas that received decent snow cover, wheat should be well insulated and come through just fine.

The grain markets were mostly positive for much of the week, with outside markets playing a role. A weaker U.S. dollar early in the week provided some support in the grain markets. Corn saw steady trade as export demand offered some support, but large supplies still limit major upside moves. On the soybean side, China continues to favor Brazilian soybeans for the first half of 2026, which takes demand away from U.S. soybeans.